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Monday, May 26, 2008

Comparing housing markets

The Economist's house price indicators (measured as % change) for 1997-2008, for the first quarter of 2007, and the latest is shown below.



It seems to suggest that house prices are still climbing, except in the US and a couple others. In any case house prices in Japan and Germany have been falling for more than a decade now. As The Economist points out, the worst excesses of the housing boom may have been played out in Spain and Ireland. According to Goldman Sachs, construction and housing-related employment in both countries made up 13% of all private-sector jobs at the end of last year, against 9% in America and 5% in Germany. Meanwhile, nominal residential investment was 11% of GDP in Ireland and 9% in Spain, against 6% in America. That has caused a glut. The Economist feels that New Zealand and Australia are the other vulnerable markets.

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